We can sense the heat of upcoming Punjab elections, which will be held in the first quarter of 2017. The ruling alliance Shiromani Akali Dal – Bharatiya Janata Party is expected to face very tough competition from Aam Aadmi Party (AAP). Punjab opinion polls are also suggests that AAP is a tough constetant. Out of total 117 assembly seats of Punjab, 59 seats are required to form the government. We have a question: who will win Punjab elections 2017? ; let’s try to find out the answer. The Aam Aadmi Party has declared that they will contest the upcoming Punjab elections in 2017, this announcement made the Punjab elections more interesting. As per the recently conducted Punjab opinion poll by HuffPost-C Voter in 2016, Aam Aadmi Party will win by a huge margin.
Punjab Opinion Poll Results
The summary of various opinion polls conducted so far has been shared below. This shows a comparison of poll prediction declared by these agencies.
|THE WEEK-Hansa Research||January||28-30||49-51||33-35||3-5|
|ABP News-Lokniti CSDS||2016||50-58||41-49||12-18|
|India Trending Now||7-8||9-13||16-20||85-89||0-2|
Now the election season has started in the state, voting date is 04 February. Various news and polling agencies has already announced the Punjab opinion polls 2017. These surveys are just an effort to get a prediction of election results. Punjab assembly elections 2017 predictions were being conducted in previous year and first month of this year. We have seen opinion polls shared by India Today-Axis (Aaj Tak), VDPAssociates, ABP News-Lokniti CSDS, India Trending Now, etc.
Chanakya opinion poll for Punjab is not yet shared by the agency. As per norms, Chanakya exit poll will be shared after completion of voting, which is 8 March, 2017. It is one of the reputed opinion poll and sometimes shows a close prediction of election results. We are keeping an eye on declaration of the Chanakya opinion survey of Punjab. It will be shared here, once it is announced by the agency.
Key Updates Related To Punjab Elections
- The voter turnout on 04, Feb was 78.6%.
- Maximum voting percentage was recorded in Mansa, 87%.
- Out of total 1.98 crore voters of Punjab, 1.54 crore people stepped out to cast their vote.
- Re-polling happened on 09 February, voter turnout was recorded as 65%.
Latest India Today-Axis Survey Poll
Date: 31 January 2017
As per the latest survey released by India Today Axis, Congress might win 60-65 seats in Punjab out of 117 seats with 37% vote share. On the other BJP+SAD alliance will manage to get 11-15 seats with 24% vote share. AAP expected seat share is 41-44 seats with 34% share of the votes. The survey is conducted from 13 to 25 January 2017.
Latest ABP-CSDS Survey Election Opinion Poll
Date: 31 January 2017
Survey was done on 3462 voters of 39 assembly constituencies on 184 polling booths. It was conducted from 15 to 24 January 2017.
Latest Punjab Opinion Poll by VDPAssociates
|Party||Seat Forecast||Vote Share %|
Date: 29 January 2017
Latest Punjab opinion poll is shared by VPDAssociates, published on their twitter account. The agency has conducted this survey between 23 January to 28 January, on 3922 people. Latest Punjab opinion poll conducted by VDPAssociates was conducted on 14 district, covering 42 constituencies.The survey predicts that AAP will win with majority in Punjab assembly elections 2017. AAP is expected to win 62 seats, Congress has got second spot with 44 seats. SAD and BJP alliance will only get a mere 7 number of seats. AAP will get maximum vote share, a good 35 percent. Congress will get 33 percent and SAD+BJP alliance will be having 26 percent of votes in their share. The agency has also conducted opinion survey in Uttar Pradesh, predicting that BJP+ will win with majority.
Opinion Poll by THE WEEK-Hansa Research
Punjab elections are very interesting this time and to raise the heat a bit, new surveys are shared by agencies. One such survey is declared by THE WEEK-Hansa Research on republic day, 26 January. According to this Punjab Opinion poll, congress will win maximum of 49-51 seats. AAP will be somewhere behind with 33-35 seats. BJP+SAD alliance gets the third spot with 28-30 seats. Others will mark their presence with 3-5 seats. If this prediction is considered, Punjab will have hung assembly in 2017 elections. None of the party is predicted to win with majority. This survey just predicts a head to head contest between parties and no one is emerging as clear winner. However the survey predicts, only results can show the clear picture.
Opinion Poll by ABP News-Lokniti CSDS
The Survey was conducted on 48 Assembly constituencies of Punjab between, 10 to 18 December 2016. As per the poll Shiromani Akali Dal and Bhartiya Janata Party alliance will get 50 to 58 seats with a vote share of 34%. Indian National Congress will manage to get 41 to 49 seats in upcoming polls which are scheduled to be on 4 February 2017. INC will fight the elections under the leadership of Captain Amarinder Singh and managed to get 31% vote share. Aam Aadmi Party will be on third spot and managed to get only 21 to 18 seats with 21% vote share.
Captain Amarinder Singh voted as most popular Chief Ministerial Candidate with 29 percent vote shares. Parkash Singh Badal managed to get second spot with 20% vote shares and AAP Bhagwant Mann remains on third spot with 8% votes.
Punjab Election Opinion Poll 2017 by TV24 India
The opinion poll conducted by TV24 India also suggests that AAP will be in majority in elections. Aam Aadmi Party is expected to win 70-80 seats out of 117 assembly seats. If the survey shows the exact scenario, AAP will form government in Punjab. The second party as per tally of seat is Congress with 27-35 seats. This number is not good enough to bring them in power. BJP is not very far from Congress and they have managed to secure 20-25 seats in the upcoming elections.
|Party||Seat Projection (Aug 2016)|
India Today-Axis Punjab Opinion Poll
As per latest opinion poll conducted by India Today-Axis (13 October 2016), Congress is going to be the biggest party in upcoming Punjab elections. INC will win 49-55 seats and AAP will win 42 to 46 seats. SAD and BJP alliance will be able to win 17 to 21 seats. Independent candidates might able to win 3 to 7 seats in polls. As per 76 percent respondent’s drug problem is a major issue in Punjab.
As per the opinion poll the Favorite CM Candidates are listed below:
|CM Candidate||Survey Percent|
|Parkash Singh Badal||25|
|Navjot Singh Sidhu||8|
|Sukhbir Singh Badal||3|
|Gurpreet Singh Ghuggi||3|
|Sucha Singh Chhotepur||1|
*India Today-Axis Opinion Poll is conducted on 6552 voters of 117 assembly constituencies.
Punjab Opinion Poll 2017 by HuffPost-C Voter
|Party / Alliance||Seat Projection (2015)||Seat Projection (March 2016)|
As per the Punjab opinion poll 2017 predictions, Aam Aadmi party is going to win around 100 seats in the elections. This will be a big turnaround for AAP if survey polls come out to be true in upcoming elections. The popularity of the AAP has increased as compared to an opinion poll conducted in 2015. There is a bad news for the INC, as per the predictions Indian National Congress is expected to win only 8 to 14 seats. The ruling party SAD and BJP seems to secure only 6 to 12 seats, which is a huge disappointment.
Punjab Opinion Poll by VDPAssociates (October 2016)
|Party||Seats as per Survey||Vote Share|
Latest survey of Punjab opinion poll was conducted by VDPAssociates in October 2016. This helps us to get a better picture of the upcoming elections in Punjab. Latest survey suggests that AAP will lead in elections with a share of 93 seats. This shows that Arvind Kejriwal is a favourite of people of Punjab. Aam Aadmi Party seems to get a lot of positive response in the upcoming Punjab elections. According to the opinion poll, Congress will have to satisfy itself with a mere tally of 15 seats. NDA is far behind with a total of 6 seats, which is not a good share of seats. Others may bag 3 seats in the elections. The opinion poll clearly declares Aam Aadmi Party as the clear winner in the 2017 Punjab elections.
Punjab Elections Opinion Poll by VDPAssociates (July 2016)
|July 2016 Predictions||2012 Actual Data|
|Party||Seats||Vote %||Seats||Vote %|
VDPAssociates survey agency is also predicting that AAP is going to win 100 seats in Punjab Elections 2017 with a vote percentage of 46%.
Punjab Opinion Poll 2017 by India Trending Now
|Party||Seat Projection 2017||Vote %|
|Aam Aadmi Party (AAP)||85-89||39-43|
As per India Trending Now Punjab Survey Arvind Kejriwal’s Aam Aadmi Party is the favourite party of Punjab and Arvind Kejriwal is the favourite CM. More than half of the voters of Punjab rated Mr. Arvind Kejriwal as best CM candidate.
Favourite CM Candidate for Punjab Elections 2017 by India Trending Now
|Captain Amarinder Singh||19%||INC|
|Parkash Singh Badal||10%||SAD|
|Sukhbir Singh Badal||6%||SAD|
The competition seems very interesting with the addition of AAP for the very first time time in Punjab elections. Most of the opinion polls conducted by various agencies shows AAP as a favourite party. BJP, INC and SAD has a big competitor in the elections and they seems to be struggling to get enough support. Drug abuse, corruption and unemployment are the three major issues in Punjab elections. All the political parties are trying to use these issues to get the trust of the voters. Punjab opinion polls gives an initial picture of the scenario but they are just the predictions, which are surveyed on a small sample of voters. The fate of candidates will be decided by the votes of the people of Punjab.
Opinion Polls 2017